How is ridership estimated?
METRO and the Houston-Galveston Area Council (H-GAC) use a shared computer-based tool to forecast future usage of the highway and ridership on various transit services, such as local buses, commuter buses and light rail. This computer-based tool, also called a travel model is a mathematical representation of how travel occurs in this region today and how it will change in the future.
How does the travel model work?
The travel model has four major components and each component performs a certain type of calculation. All these components work together like a machine. The first two components determine:
- How many trips are produced in the region; and
- Where do these trips begin and where do people want to go.
The last two components determine:
- What percent of the total trips will be made using an automobile versus METRO's transit services;
- What transit routes will attract the most transit trips; and
- What highway routes will the attract the most auto trips.